8:10 pm: French economy punished by war in Ukraine
According to two views presented by Banque de France on Sunday, the growth of the French economy should be reduced by 0.5 to 1.1 percentage points in 2022 due to the war in Ukraine. The central bank has forecast that French gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 3.4% in 2022, if oil prices averaged $ 93 a year, but only by 2.8% if these prices reach $ 119. , Raising its growth forecast from 3.6% to 3.9%. Banque de France predicts that in 2023 and 2024, growth this year, which will benefit from strong gains from the beginning of the year, will fall to 2% in the first scenario, which qualifies as “regular” and then to 1.4%. 1.3% then called “lost” in 1.1%.
The effects of the war will also be felt on the Consumer Price Index (HICP), which will be 3.7% in the first scenario this year and 4.4% in the second. This inflation index allows for comparison at the European level, taking into account energy prices above the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) proposed by the INSEE, which rose to 4.1% a year in France in February, but by the end of 2022, by the end of 2022, by pre-war Banque de France Should be.
The negative shocks of the conflict on the French economy fall into three categories: rising energy and raw material prices, reduction in consumption and investment, as well as reduction in demand for France affecting foreign trade, and the Banque de France.
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